California and the Southeast United States, which have felt the brunt of
El Niņo- related severe weather this year, are most at risk for spring
flooding, according to Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration experts who released their annual National
Hydrologic Outlook today.
"We are not likely to see severe flooding as we did last year due to last
winter's heavy snowfall," said Commerce Secretary William M. Daley.
"However, all communities must be alert to flood warnings, especially in
the central valley region of California, along the West Coast, in the
southeastern United States and in New England."
Preliminary information on snow cover, soil conditions and stream flow
conditions from local National Weather Service offices suggests that some
areas will be at risk for springtime flooding, but considering existing
conditions, so far there are no areas of extreme concern this spring. Even
with the impact of El Niņo, this spring does not look as bad as the spring
of 1997, when NOAA correctly predicted record flooding for the Red River of
the North.
Another area of above average likelihood of flooding stretches like a
triangle from east Texas, northeast through central Pennsylvania, and then
south to include most of Florida. Precipitation has been plentiful through
this region as several storms, following the strong southern jet stream,
tapped Gulf of Mexico moisture and deposited it over the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic. Soil conditions are very wet over this area and stream flow
conditions show minor flooding is occurring in a number of basins over far
eastern Texas, most of Louisiana, southwestern Arkansas, the southern half
of Georgia, north-central Florida and along portions of the Carolina
coastal plain. Locations on the Suwannee River in Florida saw some of the
highest river levels in 50 years.
"This is good news for the coming spring," said Secretary Daley. "We are
not likely to see severe snowmelt flooding. This is in part because El
Niņo brought warmer temperatures and less precipitation to areas most
affected last spring."
Conditions in the Red River basin are different from a year ago. There is
much less snow, and flooding will range from minor to moderate. Over the
past 100 years, almost one year out of two has seen spring flooding on the
Red River. Unless conditions change dramatically, flooding this year will
be much less severe than in 1997.
Daley also used the news conference to announce a new Commerce Department
Natural Disaster Reduction Initiative (NDRI) in the President's Fiscal Year
1999 Budget.
"We can do more to help prevent the damage that bad weather can do," said
Daley, outlining a program that pools Commerce Department resources to help
communities and businesses reduce the impact of natural disasters.
"Commerce's NDRI brings together for the first time the resources of the
Commerce Department to help build disaster resistant communities and jobs."
Secretary Daley described the NDRI as following a three-pronged approach.
First, it seeks to lower weather-related losses through improved
construction techniques. An additional $3 million a year will go for
research on wind, seismic and fire engineering to make buildings more
disaster resistant.
Second, the NDRI will improve prediction of damaging weather and related
river flooding. As the United States experiences the century's worst El
Niņo, costs in California alone have exceeded $500 milIion. The
President's budget provides an additional $55 million a year for weather
and flood forecasting. One key element of this provision is the first
phase of a national implementation of a new National Weather Service system
to improve river forecasting. Daley said the National Weather Service's
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) provides more accurate river
forecasts with greater lead times for flood mitigation. The system also
provides water volume availability forecasts for water users, providing
money-saving information to many sectors of the economy.
Third, the NDRI will help communities and businesses safeguard jobs in
hazard- prone areas. The President is requesting $3 million per year of
new funding for economic development. Secretary Daley said this will allow
the Department of Commerce to work in public-private partnership to build
disaster-resistant communities.
"Two thirds of federal disaster aid is weather related," said Secretary
Daley. "And though we cannot prevent bad weather, we are getting better at
predicting it. The Commerce Department's NDRI will help save lives and
protect property. We will be working closely with FEMA, the Interior
Department and other federal agencies, with state and local governments and
with our nation's businesses."
Commerce agencies involved in the NDRI include the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, National Institute for Science and Technology,
International Trade Administration, Bureau of Export Administration,
Economic Development Administration and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The annual Spring Flood Outlook for the nation is a compilation of flood
outlooks prepared by the NWS river forecast centers and weather forecast
offices. NWS hydrologists and meteorologists work with federal, state and
local agencies to gather snow, stream flow, soil moisture and river ice
measurements, and combine that information with rainfall data, and short-
and long-term weather forecasts to determine the likelihood of flooding
throughout the United States.
For complete information, visit the National Spring Hydrologic Outlook Web
site at: http://www.outlook.noaa.gov/floods98.
Editors' note: For sidebar story ideas on topics such as flood safety or
advanced forecasting techniques, visit the NOAA story ideas for reporters
home page at
www.noaa.gov/public-affairs/opca5.html.
