1998: A "MEAN"
SEASON FOR
ATLANTIC HURRICANES
NOAA scientists say that
the 1998 hurricane season brought an above-average number of
hurricanes and tropical storms -- including the devastating Hurricane
Mitch -- making it the deadliest Atlantic region season in more
than 200 years in terms of storm-related fatalities. A contributing
factor to the increased activity -- 50 percent more hurricanes
and 30 percent more tropical storms than normal -- was a climate
phenomenon called La Niña, cooler-than-average sea-surface
temperatures in the central tropical Pacific.
In a joint Aug. 4 outlook,
forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane
Center and Hurricane Research Division correctly predicted above
normal tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic between
August and October. The Atlantic season, which runs June 1 to
Nov. 30, spawned 14 tropical cyclones (average is 10) with ten
becoming hurricanes (average is six). Almost all of these storms
and hurricanes occurred subsequent to the forecasts. There were
$3.2 billion in insured damages and 21 deaths in the United States.
"The art of forecasting
is better than ever, thanks to our talented people and our investment
in science and technology," said Secretary of Commerce William
M. Daley. "Nevertheless, events of this Atlantic hurricane
season are sobering. Our thoughts and prayers are with the hundreds
of thousands of people affected by the hurricane season. I am
deeply saddened by the tragic loss of life and property and the
enormous economic losses. They are a reminder that we need to
continue the momentum of modern forecasting, hurricane awareness
for everyone from policymakers to families, communications designed
to reach even the remotest of villages, and building disaster
resistant communities."
"Our investment in
technology has enhanced our ability to make better hurricane
predictions," said D. James Baker, NOAA administrator. "We,
as a nation, need to continue striving toward better hurricane
track forecasts. The payoff is less disruption caused by needlessly
evacuating areas that aren't affected, and longer lead times
in which to evacuate people and safeguard property in areas that
are."
"The season started
a little late with Tropical Storm Alex on July 27, but made up
for lost time," said Jerry Jarrell, director of the National
Weather Service's National Hurricane Center. "In a remarkable
span of 35 days between Aug.19 and Sept. 2, 10 named tropical
storms formed. That's nearly a whole year's worth of activity
crammed into little more than a month."
The year tallied seven landfalling
storms in the continental United States, including Hurricanes
Bonnie, Earl, Georges, Frances and Mitch (the last two were downgraded
to a tropical storm on landfall) and Tropical Storms Charley
and Hermine.
The 1998 Atlantic season
was the deadliest in more than 200 years. Not since the hurricane
of 1780 that struck Martinique, St. Eustatius and Barbados (Oct.
10-16, 1780), killing between 20,000 and 22,000, has the Atlantic
hurricane basin seen storm- related fatalities like those of
Hurricane Mitch (Oct. 21-Nov. 5). Wire services attribute some
11,000 deaths to Mitch, with thousands more missing.
In this "mean"
season, Mitch, a Category 5 monster, registered average sustained
winds near 180 mph (Oct. 25) with gusts well over 200 mph. Mitch
was the fourth most intense hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic
basin this century based on barometric pressure, and the strongest
ever observed in the month of October. (For additional details,
see the National Climatic Data Center's Web site at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/reports/mitch/mitch.html
During the 1998 season,
NOAA scientists, working with NASA and University
collaborators, conducted the most complete and sophisticated
campaign of observations in hurricanes ever, noted Hugh Willoughby,
director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.
"In Bonnie, Danielle
and Georges, we had six or seven aircraft observing the same
hurricane simultaneously," Willoughby said. "Advanced
observational instrumentation and remote sensing technology aboard
NOAA's Gulfstream-IV high altitude jet and WP- 3D airplanes make
each of these platforms an airborne laboratory, vastly more capable
than those flying just a couple of decades ago. We can study
and understand hurricanes on all scales, from a single raindrop
to hemisphere-wide winds that control the storm's motion."
NOAA's hurricane forecasting
technology includes sophisticated super computers and their numerical
models, observational systems such as the GOES satellites, and
"hurricane hunter" aircraft that include a new Gulfstream-IV
jet and two WP-3D Orion turboprops. |